DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 11/30 06:29
Traders To Balance Oversold Futures With Fundamentals
Both cattle and hog futures closed higher. This was not supported by cash or
product values, but mostly due to a continued correction of an oversold market.
Gains may be tempered a bit today due to cash weakness.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Lower Futures: Lower Live Equiv: $214.97 -$1.12*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $91.46 -$0.83**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle futures closed higher as short covering and some new buying interest
remained prevalent in the market. With cash trade prices likely set for the
week, the discount to cash may provide further gains in futures. Cash cattle
trade continued the pattern of the week with Southern trade $2 lower than last
week. Trade developed in the North at $4 lower than last week. This is expected
to the where business for the rest of the week will take place. Weakness of
boxed beef may keep a lid on the potential for futures to rebound. Choice cuts
were down $1.14 with select down $2.26. Traders are already looking ahead to
next week assessing whether the discount to cash should be maintained or
whether futures have further upside potential. Trader positioning for the end
of the month has likely been accomplished leaving them focusing on fundamentals.
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