DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/29 10:49
Grain Futures Moving Higher Midday Thursday
Corn is 5 to 6 cents higher, soybeans are 13 to 15 cents higher and wheat is
13 to 20 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 190 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.44 lower. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are
firmer with crude up $0.70. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading.
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $30.00.
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Thursday with trade continuing
to work the middle of the recent range with little fresh news overall and
spreads softer as September/December goes to a slight carry. Ethanol margins
look stable with energies moving more sideways as well, with corn strength
limiting gains a bit. Brazil will continue to move along with the end of the
second crop season with frost issues still being watched as crop estimates
continue to trickle lower, while near-term weather looks more mixed into August
for the U.S. with possible storm damage in some spots overnight. Corn basis
continues to fade with cash inverses likely to see more pressure as wheat and
southern sorghum start to become available to feed. Weekly export sales were
mixed at -115,200 metric tons of old crop and 529,300 of new crop. On the
September contract, resistance remains at $5.57 with further support at the
lower Bollinger Band at $5.22.
Soybeans are 13 to 15 cents higher at midday with trade looking to sustain
strength after the active start to the week and weather forecasts likely to
dictate late session action, with spread action remaining flat. Meal is
narrowly mixed and oil is 1.45 cents to 1.55 cents higher. The weather pattern
is warmer and drier short term with more rain coverage in the extended forecast
for the East as we go into pod fill. South America will continue to ship
soybeans while the run in canola values turn more sideways, potentially
limiting oil upside short term. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent
days. Weekly export sales were mixed at -79,200 metric tons old crop and
312,800 of new; meal at 87,300 of old and 73,100 of new, with oil at 2,200. On
the September soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at $13.70, which we
are solidly above at midday, with the upper Bollinger Band at $14.26 beyond
Wheat trade is 13 to 17 cents higher at midday with spring wheat leading
once again as early harvest reminds us that the crop is poor this year, with
estimates on the crop tour sitting in the mid 20 bushel-per-acre range. Harvest
will continue to expand across Europe and the Black Sea with mixed results so
far and Canada on deck while the dollar has faded below 92 points on the index
to multi-week lows. KC holds at 30-cent discount to Chicago, with Minneapolis
at a 219-cent premium, holding in the middle of the recent range. Weekly export
sales were solid at 515,200 metric tons. KC September on the chart has support
at the 20-day at $6.32 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $6.85.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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