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DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/14 11:05
Early Gains Fade to Mixed Midday Action
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower; soybeans are flat to 1 cent higher, and
wheat is flat to 4 cents higher.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
General Comments
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower; soybeans are flat to 1 cent higher, and
wheat is flat to 4 cents higher. U.S. stock markets are mixed with the Dow up
40. The dollar index is 25 higher. Interest rate products are closed for
Columbus Day. Energies are weaker with crude down 1.40. Livestock trade is
firmer, led by cattle. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $8.00.
CORN
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with prices surging on trade
optimism and weather before fading with details still lacking on the nature of
the China deal struck Friday. Harvest will remain slow but should show progress
again by late week with the extended forecast looking wetter. Ethanol margins
have improved to start the week with ethanol futures edging higher with idled
plants still needing a return to harvest basis to restart. Basis remains flat
to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn
planting is underway, with second-crop shipments out of Brazil remaining
active. Weekly export inspections and crop progress will be delayed until
Tuesday because of Columbus Day. On the December contract, support is at the
10-day at $3.90, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.02.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans futures are 1 to 3 cents higher after initially trading nearly a
dime higher before fading with more details on trade and potential weather
losses before shifting to two-sided action at midday. Meal is flat to $1.00
higher and oil is narrowly mixed. Crush margins remain good. Economically, U.S.
export competitiveness remains improved, but at a steep currency disadvantage
to South America with harvest needed to boost competitiveness. Bean basis
should see pressure again if the combines get rolling again next week. South
America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the
month with some weather issues remaining. On the November chart support is the
200-day at $9.10 with the upper Bollinger band at $9.39, and the spike high at
$9.45 as resistance.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are flat to 4 cents higher, with the higher protein wheats
leading and concerns about milling quality adding the most support after the
row-crop spillover faded. The Chicago/KC December spread is 85 cents with
choppy action continuing and KC gaining this morning. Remaining spring wheat
harvest will likely be stopped with the incoming cold front. The corn/HRW
spread has widened back to 28 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working
wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea
origin. The December KC chart support is the $4.07-$4.09 area where the 10-,
20-, and 50-day moving averages are clustered with the upper Bollinger band at
$4.27 3/4 as the new high is resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
(CZ)
Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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